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Next step is the NS response - as in a go or try again or go away. I think if they act serious, GAME ON. There will be crapton a of capital streaming around the industry, as everybody tries to position themselves.

Gotta be thinking that the other Class Is might already be laying out strategy - looking at their options, whether they're best to be the takeover party or being taken over...financing, etc.

Fun stuff to think about!

I'll say thank god the STB won't allow it either way. BUT, if it were to happen say goodbye to not just steam and heritage units... think JOBS. And not just train crews...

TrainWatcher wrote:I'll say thank god the STB won't allow it either way. BUT, if it were to happen say goodbye to not just steam and heritage units... think JOBS. And not just train crews...

That's quite a blind opinion. I don't think anybody should write off the possibility that the STB won't approve it.

Not really sure why this would definately not be approved by the STB, The merger doesn't give Canadian Southern Pacific of Norfolk a monopoly over one region. In fact the systems compliment each other quite nicely. Top is CP, Bottom is NS

Judging by Norfolk Southern's language, it seems highly unlikely the board of directors will approve the offer.

GTWChris wrote:Judging by Norfolk Southern's language, it seems highly unlikely the board of directors will approve the offer.

Which is what Ackerman is judging. If they don't, start lining up shareholders and see if you have the votes to elect your own people to the Board.

NS has to be careful how they choose to fight. They get too ugly, and things could end badly for them.

Saturnalia wrote:

TrainWatcher wrote:I'll say thank god the STB won't allow it either way. BUT, if it were to happen say goodbye to not just steam and heritage units... think JOBS. And not just train crews...

That's quite a blind opinion. I don't think anybody should write off the possibility that the STB won't approve it.

Alex, if you actually did some research and talked to people and not just local foamers, you'd know this has most of the NS crews watching and waiting as well the MOW, C&S, and service personnel. This could and will have large implications at a place like Altoona or Chattanooga, where a large portion of the town is based on railroad infrastructure. PA and the coal regions are hurting already and the NS employees in the Eastern coal reagions are already a bit spooked after CSX up and closed the Clinchfield. The mines aren't producing, when I was out there in September, the little towns are hurting big time, and a lot of people are out of work because of the EPA war on coal.

So take a merger.

What normally happens in a merger? You CONSOLIDATE, you do not ADD. You eliminate extra fat, and create more profit for the company and the stockholder. Usually, this involves cutting jobs, eliminating lightly used routes, and consolidating traffic. Shippers lose choice, and they'll suffer, and it could end up becoming a second Penn Central style situation.

Also, if the STB allows it to happen (without Ackerman influencing the NS board, which is highly likely to happen in any case) you'll watch everyone else (KCS, CSX, UP, CN, BNSF) quickly buddy up and the STB does not want another Conrail style debacle. Now, that being said, Russ is correct. If Ackerman "buys" the NS board, guess what... the NS as you know it will not exist. You can pretty much say goodbye to all the employee oriented stuff (steam, heritage units, etc), and it'll be just be like CSX and BNSF. Pure profit. And the bad part, is the STB cannot do one bit if Ackerman buys NS. It'll be NS on paper, but it'll be controlled by the CP.

Actually, the STB can step in if Ackman tries to "control" NS. There is a statue where once somebody has some other form of "control", like stock ownership over some level which is this far undefined, where the STB has power similar to if somebody actually bought it.

I understand the arguments, but you can't just write off the potential for an STB "yeah" decision. Plenty of things that could be done to alleviate issues. Unlikely, maybe. Impossible? Hell no.

Oh...the huritaj and tea kettles. You know a foamer if that is in their argument

Even without a takeover, there's plenty of rumblings inside NS that the previous leadership playing fast and loose with steam, heritage, and other "railfan" oriented activities, in the face of declining performance, that stuff might get shelved anyway.

The STB control only happens if one firm owns the stock. Ackman gets around that but not buying them, but aligning the shareholders. STB would only step in after NS has been taken over.

CSX_CO wrote:in the face of declining performance, that stuff might get shelved anyway.

I've heard from several credible sources that the Steam Program will be greatly diminished if it exists at all next year. Sounds like steam on NS won't go away in totality (no CSX-style ban), but that the railroad itself won't be sponsoring many, if any, excursions.

I think the steam program has run its course anyways. Something has been just about everywhere. No need for the railroad to continue to self-sanction more events.

One also has to wonder in the "big, new, shiny system", if the Board would also keep older (although well proven) shops like Altoona open. In the overlook of a new system, Altoona is really far east to send major repair work, plus its well over 100 years old. CP is notorious for shopping out their work to places like CADRail. If you look at it, a place like Elkhart or the surrounding area is more center of the system (access from Butler and on the Chicago main to access Chicago and Toronto), and there is a lot of open farmland in Northern Indiana at which to build a new, modern rebuild/maintenance facility. Chattanooga is kind of safe because it is in a good overall location, but there could be some big paradigm shifts in the works. Atlanta would also be a big loser should the new board want to move the HQ somewhere else.

As far as steam, 611 and the TVRM team sound like the only ones running next year. Reports say the NW Aux tender that 765 carried around was sent back to Roanoke a few weeks ago.

Rumblings are that while NS management is cool to the idea of merging, the NS's major shareholders are interested in the buyout.

"An Hour in the Life of Jim Squires"

http://cs.trains.com/trn/b/fred-frailey ... uires.aspx

Looks like the new logo is already being created...

Saturnalia wrote:"An Hour in the Life of Jim Squires"

http://cs.trains.com/trn/b/fred-frailey ... uires.aspx

Fred outdid himself this time... Brilliant!

2 pieces you need to watch and read:

Harrison on Bloomberg yesterday morning...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/20 ... in.company

And then this right behind it...

http://www.thestar.com/business/2015/11 ... r-bid.html

Honestly, he's gonna do it come hell or high water. I do love some of his answers as he seemed a little bushwacked by some of the questions... Goodbye NS. It was fun while it lasted...

Hunter is already talking of shedding NS yards that are not needed. So which yards will be on the chopping block?


http://calgaryherald.com/business/local ... thern-land

redcrumbox wrote:Hunter is already talking of shedding NS yards that are not needed. So which yards will be on the chopping block?


http://calgaryherald.com/business/local ... thern-land

If they do merge, without a doubt some assets will be deemed unnecessary, but for now, it is all simply speculation. Harrison is simply trying to get some positive PR. In a shareholder meeting, Harrison specifically addressed real estate and he stated without proprietary information he could only speculate on specific yards to eliminate. The biggest operational efficiency Harrison sees in the acquisition is applying CP's operating philosophy to NS. By running longer trains over the NS, locomotive fleets and employees could be eliminated. Harrison specifically mentioned cutting NS's locomotive fleet by 40%. For now, everything is just speculation. There has been no further communication between NS and CP since the initial offering.

redcrumbox wrote:Hunter is already talking of shedding NS yards that are not needed. So which yards will be on the chopping block?


http://calgaryherald.com/business/local ... thern-land

I can think of a big, historic, non-hump equipped old one (especially if Hunter wants to cut the NS fleet by 40%). It's in the mountains of PA and one of the major homes of the PRR.

ANYONE? ANYONE?? BUELLER? BUELLER?

Also, one has to wonder as Conrail Shared Assets is part of the NS system along with CSX, how that plays in as well with CR crews and MOW as well.

NS just told CP to take a hike:


http://www.nscorp.com/content/nscorp/en ... edind.html