RailRoadFan.com

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... k-southern

Potentially as a result of the Keystone Pipeline idea being killed. This could be another way for Canada to still transport crude oil into the US according to the video.

My gut says, "no way!" But is this a possibility?

I can promise that this has VERY VERY little to do with Keystone, if anything at all.

silly media.

[also, I recommend putting this in Railfanning Info, not a specific state @~Z~]

bluestreak81 wrote:
My gut says, "no way!" But is this a possibility?

Sure is, and would be cheaper than taking over CSX.

Uggggg I hope this NEVER happens. Not that I am against progress, however I just don't like the idea. Call it gut, call it a bias I just don't like the idea in general. I just don't think this mega merger would go down.. But I'm sure that's what they said about New York Central, Milwaukee, Santa Fe......

And to this:

When hell freezes over.

On the business news tonight they said CP wants to buy NS. Both stocks were up on the news.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canadia ... -1.3311255

I cannot forsee any more mergers amomgst class 1's. Aside from coast to coast systems (very unlikely for a variety of reasons) mergers within the mega systems as they are would eliminate competition which is a no-no.
More likely to see spin-offs before a big merger. But the story does make for a good story and good publicity

Its enough of a challenge to finish installing PTC on all the lines in both systems, without trying to merge the two.

Here we go again with CP Merger/Takeover talks. Last go around it was CP & CSXT. NOW it's CP & NS.

Once again, when it comes to any merger talks, commodities are the driving force behind any merger to occur right now.

Me thinking personally, it's around Big Oil especially Canadian Oil Sands. I'm under the impression these merger talks started after The U.S. President cancel the XL Pipeline Deal.

This little website might give you an idea where Canadian Oil might go, especially with a CP-NS Combo:

Oil Change International – Rail Map
http://priceofoil.org/rail-map/

Now near me, the railroad commodity near me which is the biggest is Automotive Parts & Automobiles for Detroit Metro Area. The Detroit Rail Market is 1 of 3 areas where areas where Conrail SA exists. The others being NYC/NJ & Phila/NJ. The reason Conrail was “Split” instead of totally out right “Merge/Taken Over” by either NS or CSX was to Preserve Competition.

Conrail Detroit Share Asset Area
http://knorek.com/RR/SAA/SAAIndex.htm

Detroit is considered an International Gateway for transcontinental traffic, mostly Chicago <-> Montreal aka “Canadian Corridor”. CP Rail has trackage rights over Norfolk Southern in order to reach Chicago by way though Michigan and Indiana.

CP Trackage Rights On NS [CHI-DET/WIN-TOR-MON]
- Norfolk Southern: Chicago Line (NYC/LSMS), Butler Jct, & Wabash Line
- Conrail SA: Delray Jct., Detroit Line (NYC/LSMS), & Michigan Line (NYC/MCRR),
- Michigan Central Detroit River Tunnel to Windsor, Ontario, Canada.

CP Trains On NS Traffic Types [CHI-DET/WIN-TOR-MON]
- Manifest Freights
- Autoracks
- Grain
- Intermodal (Single & Doubles)
- Oil (Ethanol & Bakken Crude)

As far other railroads operations in Detroit Area usually barrow power on thru trains:

- UP, KCS, & FMX Pacer Stack Trains on CSX from Mexico
- BNSF Coal Trains on CN, CSX, & NS from the Power River Basin.

Here’s what I sort of cooked up after looking at the Trains Magazine merger article:

Railroad Mega Merger =

Canadian Pacific Question?

NS +

KCS +

UP +

- CSX +

- BNSF

KCS Question?

CP +

UP +

- CN +

- BNSF +

- CSX

- NS

Canadian National Question?

BNSF +

NS +

- CSX

- UP

- CP

East + West Combos

BNSF Question?

NS +

- CSX

Union Pacific Question?

CSX +

- NS

Trifecta Combos

BNSF+CN[KCS]+NS

CP[KCS]+CSX+UP[KCS]


Overall, like all mergers it might LOOK GOOD ON PAPER, but in reality the railroads customer base depending on who is will either benefit or suffer. That is the nature of business.

This could be a + or - for the 21st Century Steam Program.

The +:

- CPR, MILW, SOO, D&H Heritage Added (New H-Units?)
- More Steamers: CP 2317, CP 2816, CP 2860, CP 3716, MILW 261, SOO 1003, & SOO 2719
- More Places To Run Steam Excursions Both In US & CAN
- More Holiday Trains Specials For Both US & CAN

The -:

Newly formed company doesn't want anything to do with steam at all, basically H.H. kills the 21st Steam Program. Discards anything relating to past companies at Norfolk Southern kills the Heritage Unit Diesel Program. That EL H-Unit might end up being the last NS H-Unit.

Enjoy?! *_*

Rumor is NS shareholders are warm to the idea since NS has been stagnant and/or declining. Further, rumor has it leadership inside NS isn't totally opposed to the idea. Ackman wouldn't open his mouth if he wasn't serious. Going to be interesting.

CSX_CO wrote:Rumor is NS shareholders are warm to the idea .

Stock went up $10 in five minutes when it leaked...I'd say they this is more fact the rumor

I think it would be bad for the industry. It would certainly force CSX/UP/BNSF into a merger...and who gets left out?

I think you guys remember reading that E Hunter does not like to turn his freight traffic over to other railroads in Chicago for movement east. With this happening it would be problem solved.

Saturnalia wrote:

CSX_CO wrote:Rumor is NS shareholders are warm to the idea .

Stock went up $10 in five minutes when it leaked...I'd say they this is more fact the rumor

I think it would be bad for the industry. It would certainly force CSX/UP/BNSF into a merger...and who gets left out?

CSX stock did the same. So does the stock of any company facing a takeover. People jump on the band wagon in the hopes they get a premium. That's why the now stop stocks from trading on activity spikes. Too many computer purchases set to execute when parameters are met, and all hell breaks loose.

This isn't a merger. This is Ackerman flexing his muscle, using his connections and free cash to excercise enough control to facilitate operating agreements. Just like Beekshire Hathaway taking over BNSF, no STB involvement until they try and merge on paper. So as long as he gets the shares behind him, nothing anyone can do to stop him.

So we are talking CP take over correct? not necessarily a merger to form a "CP-NS", but just CP getting all of NS?

Ypsi wrote:So we are talking CP take over correct? not necessarily a merger to form a "CP-NS", but just CP getting all of NS?

Sort of. Pershing Square is probably taking advice from Harrison at CP, but it's that holding company (and the money behind it) that's doing the buying or aligning NS shareholders. They get enough people on their side, they could execute a proxy fight without buying a single share for themselves. STB doesn't get involved until 1 firm holds a certain % of the other. Ackerman doesn't exceed that limit with his own shares, nothing STB can say.

NS was a bit "cool" to CP's idea to merge according to this article:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/canadian-pa ... 1447460211

http://trn.trains.com/news/news-wire/20 ... -confirmed

CP has confirmed that they sent a letter to NS suggesting a merger.

Norfolk Southern's response:

http://nscorp.com/content/nscorp/en/new ... miumn.html

This is looking more and more like a real possibility. I'm hoping this won't lead to abandoning of any kind.