AMTK 48 & 49

[AARR]

GETTING BACK ON TRACK---WHAT WAS THE RUN TIME WHEN AMKRAK RAN FROM CHI. TO TOL. THUR DETROIT ? AN EXTRA HR. SOUNDS A LITTLE LIGHT TO ME.

Once it gets out of Detroit it may be an hour but it'll probably take an hour just to get through Detroit and Delray Jct. Then, there's getting through Toledo which may add another hour. I don't know just speculating based on what it takes freight trains to transverse the route.

[A No.1]

My Bad. 48 and 49. I must have had Re-routes on the brain. LoL.

[Mr. Tops]

railroadchoad: some people on this board ARE the ones "in the know". Just because your source is "in the know" doesn't mean he's right or actually knows what he's talking about. CSX_CO, sd70accsxt700, myself and others work on the railroad but doesn't make every word that comes out of our mouths to be factual. A lot of what we hear is just rumors and they really come to full bloom when someone comes on here and says, "I know someone who is 99.5% more in the know" than any of us. Well, good for you. Ever heard of the game "telephone"? The railroad is a place where rumors spread like a bad disease and there's a saying out here that goes, "tell a phone, tell a friend, tell a railroader". Lastly, we're not all as stupid as you make us out to be on here. We have some very knowledgable, intelligent people present and also people "in the know". Because you know someone who is also in the know doesn't give you one bit of credibility, as we have no idea who you are, who that person is and what or who they know. So, I'll thank you on behalf of the other members here not to insinuate that we are all just dumb foamers.

[AARR]

So, I'll thank you on behalf of the other members here not to insinuate that we are all just dumb foamers.

I'm not dumb...just irrelevant

[~Z~]

Amazing how the last couple of speculation threads just turn haywire and get people all in a tiffy. I thought Aaron's original question was fine and didn't deserve to have his thread turned into a lala fest. It's fine to joke around and act silly in the off subject room, and some on these threads in the general talk, but at least try to keep it on track with your responses. Some humor added in to a normal response is fine.

Now, for the 99.5% of us that aren't in the know..since there's now just over 1000 members, that's only 5 of us that would be more knowledgable than Choad's source, which is doubtful. No reason to state it the way you did about being "in-the-know" other than to try to piss people off. You hadn't posted in almost a year, and you just had to make some smartass response like you have on the few other threads you've commented on. I'd suggest rethinking your approach on replies on future threads, as your current way is not welcome here.

Now, on with the speculation about Amtrak 48 and 49....

[MDH]

Now, on with the speculation about Amtrak 48 and 49....

After Amtrak ran that special Toledo-Detroit-Chicago not long ago a certain local reporter friend of mine asked an Amtrak media contact directly if they were considering putting back on any kind of Toledo-Detroit service and got a flat-out "No" as an answer. From Amtrak. How's that rank in the "reliable source" category?

As far as time - they probably wouldn't lose much time getting through Toledo per se since it's a simple turn north at 289 on an all NS routing, but then they'd head an hour in the wrong direction and have to navigate Detroit before even turning west again and getting out of town. Then from that point they'd have a longer run Detroit-Chicago than Toledo-Chicago and have to worry about single track meets with several opposing trains. I'd be impressed if they could do it reliably on a 2 hour longer schedule - I'd think 3 hours longer is much more realistic. A Toledo-Detroit 'connecting service' might make more sense, but they've already got that covered with buses. Also note that Michigan already has *better* service to Chicago so the only part missing would be service to the east coast and the answer there is probably drive an hour south to a station in Indiana or Ohio. How many people in lower MI who could drive to an Amtrak station on the Chicago line in an hour or so and wouldn't use the train would suddenly use it if the drive dropped to 20-30 min to a MI line station? Probably not many...

So in short, they (Amtrak) have said "no" and based on the logic above I think it's pretty unlikely to ever happen unless it's purely a political change of some sort since it wouldn't seem to make much business sense.

My 2 cents,
Michael

[GP30M4216]

Well to be upfront i have ZERO inside sources, so this is all purely speculation of the most educated degree! It's not joke that Amtrak gets screwed often along the Water Level Route - much of it from Toledo Westward. Running the Cap and LSL up into Michigan along the Michigan Line would avoid some of the mess....though the most congested portion between Porter and Chicago will remain unchanged until someone finds the money to dedicate old parallel ROW to passenger-only operations. Even if the entire portion of the Michigan Line from Wayne to Porter were purchased by Amtrak, and eventually upgraded to 110mph running, I don't think it would be of that much benefit....the stations are just too close together to get up to a good running speed before its time to apply the brakes again. Moving trains through Michigan would serve bigger markets...Kalamazoo...Battle Creek...Ann Arbor...Dearborn/Detroit, but the time increase would not be so good, nor would all the extra mileage. Plus, then some cities of size...South Bend and Elkhart, plus the greater Fort Wayne area, would lose all service. Might look good on paper, but not so good for traveling convenience.

Re-routing one train on a test basis would be my recommendation, if they actually want to proceed with this at all. Since the Capitol and Lake Shore serve all the same stations, except Bryan Ohio, between Toledo and Porter, none would lose complete service if one train came to Michigan. This could be used to determine possible ridership, actual train handling, timing, etc. My personal choice would be for one route to come up through Michigan while the other remains on the current routing. Then service is only gained (ability to go directly east from Michigan) and none is lost.

On the subject of timing, passing tracks, etc, if Amtrak is serious about acquiring the Michigan Line and adding trains, it would seem wise for them to extend and "connect" some current passing tracks, in effect creating some longer portions of double track. This might mostly eliminate the need for trains to come to a complete halt to pass another, and would lessen any delays caused by late running trains. Chelsea-Jackson and Kalamazoo to Lawton might be good places to start.

Remember, by 2000 we were supposed to have high speed X2000 style electric trains skimming through
Michigan. While that may not have happened, ridership is increasing, both here in Michigan AND at all the stations served by the Capitol Limited and Lake Shore Limited on their present routing.

[A No.1]

It would be more likely that 48 and 49-the Lake Shore Ltd.- would run via the Michigan Line. This would only add an hour or so to the run time and would allow it access to some larger markets. This means more potential passengers.

If Amtrak or MDOT is able to aquire the remainder of the Michigan Line why wouldn't Amtrak want to utilize its own assets? It's not as far-fetcheced as some may think.

This was the exact line of thought that has inspired the question. Thank you railroadchoad.

[MDH]

It's not joke that Amtrak gets screwed often along the Water Level Route - much of it from Toledo Westward. Running the Cap and LSL up into Michigan along the Michigan Line would avoid some of the mess....

Ummm, that may have been true at some point, but not in the last few years. NS does a pretty good job running them and if anything I more often hear them making up time rather than losing time between Toledo-Chicago. Not only would you not avoid mess but you'd have to go right through the 'mess' of negotiating Detroit plus all the additional time of quite a few miles of running in different directions.

And so you might pick up some business in Michigan (and remember, the only new business would be Eastbound from Detroit since Chicago-Detroit is already served) but what about all the business you'd lose in stops like Bryan, Waterloo and Elkhart? Last couple times I was at Waterloo the parking lot was pretty full.

I guess you can believe whatever you want, but I'd be stunned if they re-routed the LSL through MI.

Michael

[amtrak1007]

I think it would be interesting to see an alternate scheduled train between Toledo and Chicago that was routed through Detroit and west. One of the chief problems with the current amtrak system is the plain and simple fact that some stations are just at odd hours, if there were more than one train a day each way this would have the possibility to be different (and it is, sort of, where the cap and the LSL share trackage). I can't see 49 coming to Mich anytime soon, but I also can't rule out that in the future, extended service might include such an option.


Just my 2 cents. And thanks Z for keeping us on track.

[CSX_CO]

It's not joke that Amtrak gets screwed often along the Water Level Route - much of it from Toledo Westward. Running the Cap and LSL up into Michigan along the Michigan Line would avoid some of the mess....

Ummm, that may have been true at some point, but not in the last few years.

What happens when the economy returns with the car loadings and freight train frequency?

Practice Safe CSX

[MDH]

It's not joke that Amtrak gets screwed often along the Water Level Route - much of it from Toledo Westward. Running the Cap and LSL up into Michigan along the Michigan Line would avoid some of the mess....

Ummm, that may have been true at some point, but not in the last few years.

What happens when the economy returns with the car loadings and freight train frequency?

Practice Safe CSX

By then shouldn't the 300mph high speed line along the MAW right of way be in service?

[A No.1]

We are getting a 4 MILLION DOLLAR upgrade to our Amtk station in the Creek. It would be nice to have another train.

[Ben Higdon]

Do we really need all three Wolverines going to Pontiac? It would be nice if one of them ran down to Toledo. I know they did that in the 90s and eventually gave up on it...maybe the delays through Detroit were causing issues with getting the equipment turned for the return trip?

[A No.1]

WHERE IS BUSTER MANNING WHEN YOU NEED HIM? I would like to hear the opinion of the Manning.

[MSchwiebert]

I've been trying to think of a positive that going 100+ miles out of the way would bring - and I can't. Even if the entire route across Michigan was "high speed capable" I don't think it would compensate for the slow speeds through Toledo, Detroit etc. If they could take the Ontario side to Buffalo maybe, but in this day and age of "homeland security" and US customs ineptitude - it would be a logistical nightmare. The issue of NOUS congestion isn't really resolved either as (from what I understand) the issues are mostly west of Elkhart and with the amtrak line joining at Porter they'll get thrown in the mix anyways,

[Buster Manning]

Just Aaron, curious who you heard this from.........

I am "in the know"......and I got people, too ; alas, I'm not a heavy hitter and I don't think this topic is a joke like some people think it is....

It had been mentioned to me from upper management that it is being 'looked' into, for some of the reasons that everybody has mentioned along with some that haven't. BUT, since this is just a rumor, take everything with a grain of salt until you see changes. The next few years are going to be interesting with Amtrak managements' long range plans, the new Hours of Service laws, and PTC coming into play--along with some politics thrown in for good measure.

[A No.1]

Just Aaron, curious who you heard this from.........

LoL. I have a feeling we know some of the same people.

[A No.1]

This is from an UN-NAMED Source.

"
The rumors about 48/49 running via the MI Line are not totally unsubstantiated, BTW. It was tossed about a couple of years ago, before
traffic levels dropped. Passengers HATE taking the bus to Toledo ("we might as well take a bus the whole way"), and the population
density is much higher on the MI Line.

Latest rumor is another train, after 48, from Chicago to Kalamazoo or Battle Creek, using either a Carbondale or Quincy consist that currently overnights in Chicago in the yard.
We'll see about all of this- there have not been any additions since 370/371 in 1984. Since 1990 all I've seen has been the elimination of 352/353 to Toledo and the addition of 350/355 during the week, which used to run only on FRI-SAT-SUN."

[railroadchoad]

BUNNIES!

KITTENS!

FREE BEER!

4-8-4 PULLING FAST PASSENGER TRAIN!

THINK HAPPY THOUGHTS!

There. A post from the Choad that stands no chance of pissing people off (Except maybe PAT C. when he realizes that there isn't really any FREE BEER)!