New Business for Grand Elk in Three Rivers

[Super Chief]

A'rcher Daniels Midland filed paperwork today for a 1.4 million bushel grain facility at US-131 and Heimbach in Three Rivers. The intial trackwork would be 10,000 ft. of spurs for this facility. It would be on a site of 185 acres just north of the John Deere dealership [Filmore's]. It sits in Park Township in the northeast corner of the above mentioned intersection. Grand Elk would get loads out and trucks would be bringing in wheat, corn and soybeans. ADM says they will purchase a locomotive to switch the facility. Also GDLK is getting inbound pipeline for the E
mbridge pipeline replacment across Michigan and it's being transloaded in Kalamazoo to be shipped by truck to St. Joesph county for that portion of the line.

[AARR]

I have tried to figure out a formula to "guesstimate" how many outbound loads of grain an elevator will ship. I came up with one that often, but not always, gets me in the "ballpark".

I take the total capacity by bushels (in this case 1.4m). Reduce that by 25%, divide by 3500 (average bushels per railcar), and reduce by another 25%. So 1.4m - 25% = 1.05m / 3500 = 300 - 25% = 225. So using this formula this elevator will ship between 225-300 cars per year.

[Super Chief]

Sounds close enough. Anderson's in White Piegon has a 4 million capacity. I'm not sure on the new one in
Decatur. The ADM facility was rumored for 2 years but everybody had a confidentiality agreement in place and kept it hush,hush. Also Grand ELK has had more potatoe business this year inbound. The Fresh Solutions plant in White Piegon has been getting BSNF reefers of Idaho potatoes to supplement their local production quotas. I think the end user is Frito-Lay.

[Tom]

Any chance of some traffic on MSO, perhaps to Coldwater from this?

[AARR]

Any chance of some traffic on MSO, perhaps to Coldwater from this?

It is my understanding that they have paved over the line between Sturgis and Coldwater and some other sections are in poor shape. I believe the consenses is there will not be any more traffic on this segment.

[Tom]

The paving is reversible and there's no petition for abandonment that I can find. My understanding is they plan to keep the section. I'm hoping anyway...

[Raildudes dad]

Heard about new sidings on GDLK today, not sure if this is one of them. Should have taken notes when I heard it.

[Ben Higdon]

10K feet of track and a switcher for 300 cars a year? AARR, based on your guess there, if the Andersons at the state line has a 4 million bushel capacity (haven't verified that), thats about 800 cars a year for W.P. Sounds low to me, although I don't have firsthand experience watching that customer's traffic.

[Raildudes dad]

10K feet of track and a switcher for 300 cars a year? AARR, based on your guess there, if the Andersons at the state line has a 4 million bushel capacity (haven't verified that), thats about 800 cars a year for W.P. Sounds low to me, although I don't have firsthand experience watching that customer's traffic.

The Anderson's has about 9000 feet of sidings for that facililty scaled off aerial photos. It's interesting that ADM is buidling a facility so close to the Andersons. I don't see any big increase in farmed land. My guess is they will take business from the Andersons just like Vulcan took the stone business from Gordy Morris.

[Super Chief]

St. Joseph county is the most irragated county east of the Mississippi River. The farmers are all because seed corn, soybeans, potatoes, field corn and wheat are all grown and contracts are all over the place from the large companies. Even with this drought the fields that are irragated look pretty good. A big plus for them. I forgot to mention that the Rexam plant in Constantine also has a new owner that wants rail service. They were in Atwood Indiana up until last year. GDLK didn't get much business from Rexam as they went to Arkansas, but Conrail and PC got a lot when it was Owens-Illinois. Plastic pellets to make beverage tops as I recall. Atwood is a wood fiber products company so being there new here I don't know what business they'll generate?

[Super Chief]

Raildudes Dad, I agree based on Anderson's spur capacity, but GDLK crews bring unit grain cars to and from Elkhart with NS power to Anderson's so the spur tracks are only filled during the fall harvest as well as the stone business. There were a lot of grain extras that just shuffled between WP and Elkhart to supplement the plant capacity. This is what is happening at Reading on INER from what I saw there. I would expect GDLK to beef up the track between Three Rivers and Bristol to handle the unit trains to ADM as the recent derailments around TR show that the line does need some work. Heck the MDOT is now going to put another traffic light on US-131 to handle the expected truck traffic this ADM plant would generate. The county already improved Heimbach RD. to all-season stutus knowing something was in the wind about this plant.

[jwilliam33]

When looking at the throughput of a grain elevator and the volume shipped, don't look just at the maximum capacity, look at the number of times that they turn the inventory at the facility. It won't just load up to 1.4 million bushels and stop. During the harvest season, especially in soybean and corn harvest, they'll ship out as they take in so that the actual bushels handled would likely be 3 million or more.

[MSchwiebert]

To illustrate this, Deshler Farmers main facility is at Custar OH - has 3 million bushel capacity and loads approximately 2000 cars per year. The web link (below) also shows figures on how many bushels per car for corn, wheat & soybeans.

http://www.deshlerfarmers.com/index.cfm?show=10&mid=6

When looking at the throughput of a grain elevator and the volume shipped, don't look just at the maximum capacity, look at the number of times that they turn the inventory at the facility. It won't just load up to 1.4 million bushels and stop. During the harvest season, especially in soybean and corn harvest, they'll ship out as they take in so that the actual bushels handled would likely be 3 million or more.

[AARR]

I knew when I posted my formula there would be someone who couldn't wait to jump on me and point out its not always in the "ballpark".

Yes, my formula only works if an elevator turns over its inventory once a year and, yes, I know some turn it over more than once and others less than once, hence its a "ballpark" quantity

Elevators are hard to figure volume because they can vary wildly depending on the harvest, selling prices, etc.

[jwilliam33]

Not trying to jump on you about that at all Don. I knew that you knew about the inventory turns but thought an explaination might be useful for those that might not. Good formula though.

[AARR]

Not trying to jump on you about that at all Don. I knew that you knew about the inventory turns but thought an explaination might be useful for those that might not. Good formula though.

I was referring to Ben's post. Some guys just live to find fault in others

[Brakey]

<snip> I would expect GDLK to beef up the track between Three Rivers and Bristol to handle the unit trains to ADM as the recent derailments around TR show that the line does need some work. <snip>

Not to throw a monkey wrench into the talk here, but what makes you think the derailments were caused by track conditions?

[Super Chief]

My statement about the derailments was in reference to GDLK has not started their tie replacment program south of Kalamazoo as far as I know. The ADM news would just put more priority to getting it done. They did start work north of Kalamazoo. They did replace 1000 ties in TR after a wheel bearing burned off a tank car and destroyed the infastructure till they stopped. Nine tank cars went off in Kalamazoo recently and last year south of TR about 20 cars went off for reasons I personally don't know. Have not seen any work trains this summer so far. The Hot Box detector at MP 25.6 has been off more than on for most of the year. Don't know why that is.

[Standard Railfan]

<snip> I would expect GDLK to beef up the track between Three Rivers and Bristol to handle the unit trains to ADM as the recent derailments around TR show that the line does need some work. <snip>

Not to throw a monkey wrench into the talk here, but what makes you think the derailments were caused by track conditions?

Take a look at the line and then ask yourself the same question.

Nice looking monkey wrench.

[trnwatcher]

If they only turned the inventory 2 times a year that would still be 9-10 65 car unit trains. Nice little chunk of business for a shortline.